The Gray Rhino : How to recognize and act on the obvious dangers we ignore / Michele Wucker.

Includes bibliographical references (pages 253-273) and index.

Machine generated contents note: -- Preface -- 1. Meet the Gray Rhino -- 2. The Problem with Predictions: Unleashing Denial -- 3. Denial: Why We Miss Seeing Rhinos and Don't Get Out of Their Way -- 4. Muddling: Why We Don't Act Even When We See the Rhino -- 5. Diagnosing: Right and Wrong Solutions -- 6. Panic: Decision-Making Facing a Charging Rhino -- 7. Action: The "Aha" Moment -- 8. After the Trampling: A Crisis Is a Terrible Thing to Waste -- 9. Rhinos on the Horizon: Thinking Long-Term -- 10. Conclusion: How to Keep from Getting Run Over by a Rhino -- Acknowledgments -- End Notes -- Bibliography -- Index.

"A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance. Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled"-- Provided by publisher.

"A "gray rhino" is a highly probable, imminent threat; we can see the dust cloud on the horizon long before the charging animal comes into view. Gray rhinos are not random, but occur after a series of warnings and visible events. The Lehman Brothers crash of 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Sandy and other natural disasters, the file-sharing that presaged the collapse of the traditional music business model, the rising chaos in the Middle East...all were evident well in advance of the consequences. Gray rhinos are much easier to spot and guard against than "black swans"-- the rare, truly unforeseen catastrophes. Why then, when faced with solvable problems, do we continually fail to address them before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker explains in The Gray Rhino how significant crises can be recognized and countered strategically. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how change really occurs"-- Provided by publisher.